Goldman Sachs believes the American oil industry is about to stage a big comeback from the painful downturn and big job losses caused by oversupply. A projected 100,000 oil jobs could be coming back.
The estimate is based on Goldman’s forecast for U.S. oil production to resume growing next year after the recent drop to two-year lows. That growth would require some 700 oil rigs to be added — and each one supports an average of 120 to 150 employees.
As more oil fields come on line and America’s oil boom gets back on track, there simply won’t be enough people to do the required drilling, well completion and other logistical work. Cheap oil wiped out nearly 170,000 oil and gas jobs since late 2014 as desperate companies scrambled to cut costs and avoid bankruptcy. This downturn was far worse than the 87,000 jobs wiped out during the last downturn in the middle of the Great Recession.
Jeff Bush, president of oil and gas recruiting firm CSI Recruiting, agrees that a “worker shortage” is coming.
“When we get back to a reasonable level of activity, there’s going to be a supply crisis of experienced personnel. I just don’t see any way around that,” said Bush.
In conclusion…Last week in this publication we discussed “U.S. Now The Largest Global Oil Reserve.” Somehow the industry will need to take better care of those skilled workers if they want to keep them over the long-term. The drastic swing in oil prices has extremely painful for those workers who grow accustomed to the high salaries. Every downturn flushes out a large number of highly skilled workers.