Tag Archives: #oilhistory

Permian Basin Rig Count Explodes

Apache Corp. Drilling In Andrews County, TX

Introduction…The most attractive oil exploration and production region in the United States and perhaps the world has added 101 active drilling rigs since just May 13, 2016. That’s a giantic 84% gain in rigs in just in seven months.

The Permian basin in West Texas and southwestern New Mexico which is 250 miles wide and 300 miles long has become the most attractive drilling region due to the major infrastructure that reduces time and expense to getting oil and gas to the market.

The first commercial oil well in the Permian Basin was completed in 1921 in Mitchell County, on the east side of the basin; completed at a total depth of 2,498 feet, it was the discovery well of the Westbrook field.

With the coming of World War II the need for oil was urgent, and it became economically justified to drill more and deeper tests.

The entire Permian Basin during 1966 produced a total of 607 million barrels of oil and 2.3 trillion cubic feet of gas for a total of $2 billion. A cumulative total of 11.3 billion barrels of oil had been produced.

Conclusion...Intrastate and interstate gas pipeline systems were expanded throughout the area, and Midland-Odessa was the headquarters for the oil and gas industry in the Permian Basin area. Hundreds of millions of dollars have been spent on petrochemical refineries and supplemental construction work in the Permian Basin, which was rated the largest inland petrochemical complex in the United States. Is it no wonder the Permian basin is the most attractive oil exploration and production region in the United States and perhaps the world?

Take away...One business that benefits greatly from the new oil exploration and development is the saltwater disposal wells. These properties tend to have a consistent cash flow and a short payback period. Drop me a note if this intrigues you.

The Surprising Discovery Of One Oil Executive

the-surprising-dicovery-of-one-oil-executive

Reporting Bill Moist, MS, CPA

This Surprising Story is about a man I’ve known for many years.  We have worked on several projects together.  So this is a true story.

As with all those in oil & gas development they have:

  • Big discoveries
  • Small discoveries
  • Some that are not productive

So, he started asking how do we have these benefits of O&G in a more stable reliable environment.  What he wanted included the following:

  • Return of capital in months
  • High cash flow
  • Tax benefits of O&G
  • Steady long-term cash flow
  • Residual value in the property
  • Loyal locked in customers
  • Low maintenance costs
  • Not dependent on new oil and gas exploration
  • If regulators get stupid and limit fracking, it is still ok
  • The best of oil & gas development without the downside

What he found is generally not available to purchase because it is a cash cow for those how already own it.  However, some current economic events are creating the availability (for a time) to purchase existing properties at deep discounts.

Click here to watch video The Surprising Discovery…

Also, regulation makes it difficult and slow to develop new properties which restricts supply.

So, who is this mysterious oil and gas executive who discovered a better more stable way to participate?

What did he discover?

Email or text me your contact information and I’d be happy to share more on a private basis.

This has been Bill Moist, MS, CPA reporting today The Surprising Discovery Of One Oil Executive.

Oil Price Spike Inescapable

offshorerig

Bill’s note: We’ve been reporting in the oilandgasinsider.com since the beginning of 2016, that the massive cuts in new capital expenditiures for oil and gas exploration would lead to oil price hikes.  Now the results of those expenditiure cuts are appearing in new oil discoveries.

 CASUAL ATTIRE

Oil price spike inescapable and here’s the facts…

  • 2015 new oil discoveries are 1/10th annual average dating all the way back to 1947
  • 2015 Oil industry new discoveries are only 2.7 billion barrels
  • 2015 worldwide oil consumption at 35 billion barrels

Click here to watch the 3 minute video Oil Price Spike Inescapable.

Why do we have the largest oil consumption deficit in 69 years?

  1. Oil at less than $50 a barrel makes many fields around the world uneconomical to explore
  2. The oil industry has slashed $1 trillion in new investment from 2015 to 2026
  3. EIA expects oil demand to expand to 105 million barrels per day by 2026 up from the current demand of 94 mb/d
  4. Large scale high volume drilling like deepwater projects have been scraped
  5. Large scale projects take years to be productive

In conclusion…Supply could  fall 1.5 billion barrels short per year by 2018 to 2020.  If this does play out, then…

Oil Price Spike Is Inescapable

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References; Wood Mckeszie, Energy Information Agency, , Oil Price Spike Inevitable, By Nick Cunningham, OilPrice.com, August 30, 2016

Click here to watch the 3 minute video Oil Price Spike Inescapable.

Possible OPEC Production Freeze

OPEC Counries

Oil prices enjoyed a bump last week,…thanks in part to a weakened dollar and some geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf. But a large factor in the recent rally has been the return of a possible OPEC production freeze, a subject that was last tossed around before the organization’s much-publicized, and ultimately unproductive, meeting in Doha last April. The likelihood of a freeze sent markets up on Thursday, though some less-than-confident comments from the Saudi oil minister sent them dropping back on Friday.

Whether a freeze occurs or not is likely to be the trending gossip among speculators for the next month, at a time when such talk is exerting greater-than-average pull on the crude price. But a question worth asking is whether a freeze is even possible, given the state of OPEC and the increasingly divergent interests of its fourteen members.

This new attempt at a production freeze comes as Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader, reaches a new production record of 10.67 million barrels, more than 400,000 more than when the last freeze was discussed, while its oil revenues continue to plummet. OPEC profits have fallen 55 percent since 2014, according to the EIA. Ecuador, Kuwait and other Gulf producers want the price to recover past $50 a barrel. If a production freeze is on the cards, it will be discussed in late September during an informal meeting of the OPEC states at the International Energy Forum in Algeria.

Iraq and Iran, OPEC’s number two and three producers, respectively, have offered tacit acceptance of a production freeze, with important caveats. S

Conclusion…So, if there is a freeze, where will production be “frozen,” exactly?  What is possible, however, is that continued talk of a freeze will continue to exert influence over the market, which has see-sawed between bearish and bullish for weeks now.

Reference: Is An Oil Production Freeze Even Remotely Possible, Oil Price, by Gregory Brew, August 29, 2016

Oil Exports Surge To 100-Year High

Barrels of Oil U.S. Oil Exports

U.S. crude oil exports rose to 590,000 barrels per day in April, up 83,000 barrels from March reported by U.S. Census Bureau.  Rigzone reports this is the highest level since 1920.

The largest buyers of the crude:

  • Canada 324,000 bpd
  • Curacao 90,000 bpd
  • Bahamas 36,000 bpd

This comes just six months after the U.S. government lifted restrictions on crude exports.

The tireless lobbers against the ban- Chevron and Exxon Mobil- are the immediate beneficiaries of removing the ban.  The oil trading companies Vitol BV and Trafirua, LTD also benefited.

Israel, China, Germany, France, and Switzerland have also placed to for American energy suppliers.

Conclusion…It seems the United States benefits when other democratic countries can purchase oil and gas that doesn’t support terrorist activities like we saw this week in Orlando.  The shooter swore allegiance to the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghadadi, law enforcement told NBC news.

6 Saudi Officials Supported Terrror Attack: 9/11 Commission Member

9.11Memorial

9/11 Memorial

One more reason to support domestic oil and gas production…Six Saudi officials are believed to have actively supported al-Qaida members in the run-up to the 9/11 attacks on America, former 9/11 Commission member and investigator John Lehman has disclosed.

Lehman, who was a member of the 9/11 Commission between 2003 and 2004, said there is documented evidence against employees of the Saudi Ministry of Islamic Affairs, and specifically against individuals who worked for the Saudi Embassy in the U.S., Saudi charities and the Saudi government-funded King Fahd Mosque in California.

“There was an awful lot of participation by Saudi individuals in supporting the hijackers, and some of those people worked in the Saudi government,” said Lehman, stressing that these individuals had strong ties with the Saudi government in Riyadh.

The issue is resurfacing now as pressure builds to release the 38 pages of the 9/11 Commission investigation that had been redacted. Lehman’s disclosure of this information to the media is expected to increase this pressure.

Lehman’s disclosures also come at a time when the long-standing relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is being questioned and re-evaluated.

The Commission member’s disclosures contradict previous statements from other Commission members.

The Commission’s chair and vice chairs, former Republican New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean and former Democratic Rep. Lee Hamilton of Indiana, released a statement in April saying that “only one employee of the Saudi government was implicated in the plot investigation.”

Still, Lehman—former Navy secretary under Ronald Reagan–stressed that “we have found no evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded the organization.”

In summary...Lehman also implored the pubic to remember that 15 of the 19 9/11 attackers were from Saudi Arabia. He is now calling for a new, thorough investigation into the extent of Saudi involvement. But more immediately, Lehman is calling for the remaining 28 pages of the redacted 9/11 Commission report to be declassified—a move that could spur along the already partial break in U.S.-Saudi relations.

The Mood At The Meeting Was In A Word…Gloomy

oil-workers Oil Field Workers Testing Red Wing Boots

The mood at the Fort Worth Oilfield Christian Fellowship is normally upbeat.  They generally have speakers who have something uplifting to share.

However, on Monday the mood at the meeting was in a word… gloomy.

In looking for something positive to share I found a technical analysis chart that says crude oil price – next stop $80 or $130.  I did not put much stock in the chart as it ended on April 23, 2014.

There is a divergence of opinon whether or not the market has factored in Iran’s re-entry into the market already.  No one agrees what impact Iran will have in the short term.

In my opinion (you are free to get your own opinion if you don’t like mine), the factors moving the market are supply, demand, and speculation.  Twenty years ago, 21% of the oil contracts were purchased by speculators.  Today, oil speculators purchase 66% (or more) of all oil futures contracts.  

In looking for some good news on oil pricing, I did find one item of interest.  

Energy analysts Wood MacKenzie said last week that low oil prices have now caused the delay of 68 planned petroleum projects worldwide.  This represents $380 billion in frozen capital expenditures.

What is interesting is that this is not just represented by private sector shutting future projects.  Governments are also holding off on developing new projects.  Brazil said it will discontinue offering new offshore projects in a target area the yielded several of the biggest multi-billion barrel finds.

That should help.  But, not anytime too soon.

Have You Considered Land Banking?

landbankland-bank-ing is the practice of buying land as an investment, holding it for future use, and making no specific plans for development, says Google.

This is only a partial definition.  I have experience in acquiring over 70 land parcels.  Sometimes the play was to aggregate several parcels to increase value.  However, many times the play was to subdivide into smaller parcels.  We would often work with a land planner before the purchase to know what our exit strategy would be.

Now I have a new definition for land banking.  Purchasing property or mineral interests at today’s low oil and gas prices (WTI $44.66, gas $2.783,) then holding the land or lease with today’s production to get a ROI.  Then when we have future oil price increases sell or develop additional production.

If you don’t think we’ll have oil price increases in the future, the  EIA has confirmed U.S. oil production has peaked…at least for now.

EIA affirms peak production in the second quarter of 2015, the fall in output over the next few quarters should bring supply and demand back into balance, or at least close to it. Supply exceeded demand by more than 2.5 mb/d in the second quarter of this year, but that gap will narrow to 1.6 mb/d in the third quarter and just 500,000 barrels per day in 2016.

The oil majors have cancelled or delayed a combined $200 billion in new projects as they seek to rein in costs, according to Wood Mackenzie of the Wall Street Journal.

So, here is a strategy.  Buy oil properties based on today’s low prices that has sufficient production currently or can be inexpensive to increase production.  Then when prices rebound, develop or sell additional acreage.

This strategy has worked for land investing and developing for decades.  Why not apply it to oil and gas production where we get a current return on our investment.

Oil Pricing Heads To Bear Market?

Screenshot 2015-07-26 13.19.42Crude oil slipped back into a bear market Thursday, disappointing U.S. shale drillers that pinned their hopes on higher prices.

West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark U.S. contract, tumbled 22 per cent since June 10 to US$48.14 a barrel on Friday, erasing more than US$100 billion in market value from the companies in the Bloomberg Intelligence North America Independent Explorers and Producers Index.

Crude oil pricing are down roughly 55% from their peak of nearly $107 in June of last year and have lost about 27% from the $66.15 low in November, which at the time was the lowest settlement in 5 years

Crude’s recovery fizzled amid a worldwide glut that shows little sign of abating. U.S. production remains near the highest level in four decades, output from Saudi Arabia and Iraq surged to record levels, and Iran is focused on resuming exports after reaching a nuclear agreement with world powers.

“Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the oil patch.”   Phil Flynn, senior market analyst for Price Futures Group Inc., said by phone from Chicago.   “The bear market is definitely putting another round of fear into the shale patch and the bankers of the shale patch.”

Source: “Oil reverts back to bear market, erasing more than US$100 billion for shale drillers,” Financial Post, Asjylyn Loder and Dan Murtaugh, Bloomberg News | July 24, 2015; “It’s bad-news bear market for crude oil,”  Market Watch by Myra P. Saefong, July 24, 2015; “Sudden Drop in Crude-Oil Prices Roils U.S. Energy Firms, Major job cuts, asset sales are expected: layoffs texted to engineers and scientists,” Wall Street Journal by Lynn Cook, July 26. 2015

Big Oil’s Fear: A Price Shock After $114 Billion of Cuts

USrigcountUS Oil Rig Count Continues To Drop

Introduction…The oil industry is get accustomed to the new pricing of $50 to $60 per barrel of oil. However, the industry is looking forward to a bigger challenge.

Price to rise further…Oil companies are warning there will be a much higher price to pay in the future for all the new drilling projects that are being cancelled due to the price collapse.  Big projects that would start pumping oil and natural gas five to ten years out are being canceled or put on hold as the price crash forced spending cuts amounting to $115 billion. But wait, there’s more!