The global energy mix will not look much different for oil, gas, and coal through the year 2040.
Introduction...Both the middle class and world GDP is expected to double in the next 14 years, accelerating demand for air conditioned homes, cars, and appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and smart phones. Non-OECD nations, particularly China and India, will experience the most economic growth, driven by urbanization.
Oil is expected to remain the world’s primary energy source, driven by demand for transportation fuel and feedstock for the chemical industry. Plastics and other advanced materials provide advantages to manufacturers and consumers including energy efficiency gains.
Natural gas is projected to grow the most of any energy type, accounting for a quarter of all demand by 2040. Coal will remain important but will lose a significant amount of its share as the world transitions to cleaner energy.
The World Electrifies…Increasing electrification will drive the growth in global energy demand over the next 25 years, 55 percent of energy demand growth coming from power generation to support increasingly digital and plugged-in lifestyles and electricity will grow the most of any sector.
Conclusion: While renewable energy will grow in the next 15 years, it’s growth is not expected to keep pace with the overall demand for energy. Oil, gas, and coal are expected to meet 80% of the world’s energy demand through the year 2040.
Sources: U.S. Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Agency, eia.gov/outlooks; International Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Agency, eia.gov/outlooks; Exxon’s 2040 Outlook, oilprice.com, December 30, 2016