Tag Archives: #EIA

Growth In U.S. Natural Gas Production Creates Opportunity

Issue 99 Loading First LNG Shipment At Sabine Pass

Introduction….The first export shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced in Lower 48 states on February 24, 2016 is a milestone reflecting a decade of natural gas production growth puts the U.S. in a new position in worldwide energy trade. (EIA)

The rapid growth of shale gas has increased natural gas production each year since 2006.  The resulting decline in natural gas prices has led to rising natural gas exports to Mexico via pipeline, and now to overseas markets via LNG tankers.

Under construction or approved…

Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass Liquefaction Project in Sabine Pass, Louisiana, consists of six different liquefaction units, or trains, the first of which began service in February after many delays. The other trains are in various stages of development and permitting. Total permitted capacity by FERC is 4.16 Bcf/d.

Four LNG export terminals are currently under construction:

  • Dominion Energy’s Cove Point LNG facility in Cove Point, Maryland, is scheduled to bring one train totaling 0.82 Bcf/d online near the end of 2017.
  • Corpus Christi LNG, another Cheniere project, is under construction in Corpus Christi, Texas. The terminal is scheduled to begin service in 2018, with total permitted capacity at 2.14 Bcf/d.
  • Sempra Energy’s Cameron LNG terminal, located in Hackberry, Louisiana, is under construction and is scheduled to bring three trains online in 2018. A total of 1.7 Bcf/d has been permitted.
  • Freeport LNG‘s terminal planned for Freeport, Texas, has three trains under construction totaling 1.8 Bcf/d. The first two are scheduled to begin service in 2019, and the third in 2020.

Another terminal, Southern Union’s Lake Charles (Louisiana) LNG facility, has been approved by FERC but is not yet under construction. Lake Charles also has an LNG import terminal. Several more LNG export terminals, mostly on the Gulf Coast, have been proposed or have pending applications with FERC.

A lesson from history…You may remember the story off the San Francisco 49ers gold rush where a total of $2 billion worth of gold was extracted during the Gold Rush, which peaked in 1852.  The  non-native population swelled by 99,000 in the California territory

The company that provided the cloths needed by the 49ers is still in operations today.  Levi Strauss & Co. had 2016 sales totaling $4.6 billion.  Itls one year sales were more than twice the value of the gold rush that started the company.

Today’s opportunity created by growth in natural gas production?…Some might think today’s opportunity is in building the LNG export facilities.  However, that is a major capital expenditure with several years required to get any payback.  Many are developing and producing natural gas.  That’s not it either.

However, Just as in the 49ers story, the biggest opportunity is in providing the what is desperately needed by the producers.  This service is required by the environmental regulators.  It’s not salt water disposal either.  In fact it’s more profitable.  Message me  to learn more at bill@billmoist.net.

Sources:  “Growth in domestic natural gas production leads to development of LNG export terminals” U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA,) 4 March 2016; “Summary of LNG Export Applications of the Lower 48 States,” Energy.gov

OPEC Losing War With Fracking

OPEC Meeting Discussing Production Cuts- 98th Issue

Thanks to the shale revolution, U.S. production is up and costs have dropped significantly. Yet, OPEC is trying to increase prices by cutting its production.

First shale oil and now offshore deep-water oil are reducing their costs of production, making it more difficult for OPEC’s policies to have the intended effect. Shale oil production costs have come down significantly over the past several years, making its production profitable at below $40 a barrel.

Now, deep-water oil production is expected to bring down its costs to between $40 and $50 per barrel by early next year from an average break-even price of about $62 in the first quarter of this year and $75 in 2014. OPEC expects to keep oil prices between $50 and $60 a barrel by extending its production cuts for another nine months—keeping roughly 2 percent of global oil production off the market to increase prices.

Where is this going…As U.S. oil production increased in recent years, OPEC oil got edged out of the lucrative American oil market. America imported about 60 percent of its oil in 2007, but by 2014, the U.S. only imported 27 percent of its oil, according to government data. And now in 2016, net U.S. oil imported droped to 25% of its oil.  The rising U.S. oil production reduced demand for Saudi oil abroad, too, keeping prices low.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries lost $76 billion in 2016 due to low oil prices caused by rising U.S. oil production, according to a report published May 15th by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

In summary…Every U.S. President, since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo has calling for U.S. energy independence.  Now the Frackers have accomplished just that by finding a way to be profitable in these low energy prices.  God bless the Frackers.

Source:  Tom Stepstone, “OPEC Cuts Production in Losing War with Fracking,” OIlPro, June 8, 2017;  Andrew Follett,  “OPEC Lost $76 Billion Last Year Due to US Fracking,” The Daily Signal, 16 May 2017

Oil Price Spike Inescapable

offshorerig

Bill’s note: We’ve been reporting in the oilandgasinsider.com since the beginning of 2016, that the massive cuts in new capital expenditiures for oil and gas exploration would lead to oil price hikes.  Now the results of those expenditiure cuts are appearing in new oil discoveries.

 CASUAL ATTIRE

Oil price spike inescapable and here’s the facts…

  • 2015 new oil discoveries are 1/10th annual average dating all the way back to 1947
  • 2015 Oil industry new discoveries are only 2.7 billion barrels
  • 2015 worldwide oil consumption at 35 billion barrels

Click here to watch the 3 minute video Oil Price Spike Inescapable.

Why do we have the largest oil consumption deficit in 69 years?

  1. Oil at less than $50 a barrel makes many fields around the world uneconomical to explore
  2. The oil industry has slashed $1 trillion in new investment from 2015 to 2026
  3. EIA expects oil demand to expand to 105 million barrels per day by 2026 up from the current demand of 94 mb/d
  4. Large scale high volume drilling like deepwater projects have been scraped
  5. Large scale projects take years to be productive

In conclusion…Supply could  fall 1.5 billion barrels short per year by 2018 to 2020.  If this does play out, then…

Oil Price Spike Is Inescapable

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References; Wood Mckeszie, Energy Information Agency, , Oil Price Spike Inevitable, By Nick Cunningham, OilPrice.com, August 30, 2016

Click here to watch the 3 minute video Oil Price Spike Inescapable.