Category Archives: Energy Demands 2040

IEA Warns Oil Demand Peaks After 2040

 Issue 121 – Oil Demand Still Peaking

Introduction…Reuters- The Paris Climate Change Agreement is not expected to reduce long-term oil demand according to The International Energy Agency (IEA,)

Oil demand peak…The IEA expects oil demand to peak sometime after 2040. The Paris accord attempts to wean the world off fossil fuels in the second half of the century.  The demand for automobile fuel may drop, but other uses may rise in offset.

“The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand,” the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook.

Oil price to rise…“In the New Policies Scenario, balancing supply and demand requires an oil price approaching $80 a barrel in 2020 and further gradual increases thereafter,” the IEA said, leaving its price forecast under this scenario unchanged from last year’s World Energy Outlook.

In conclusion…The IEA is expecting the oil age still has many years to grow.

What is the future of oil?

 Issue 119 – Marcellus Shale Development Expansion

Introduction…Renewable energy will have tremendous growth in the future.  However, one source of energy growth is expected to be the fastest growing power source to 2040.  This source is expected to contribute the most to future energy demands.

The source…According to The World Oil Outlook 2017 report, developed by the Organizaton of Petroleum Exporting Counties, stated shale natural gas and shale oil – will be the power source of the future.  Shale oil has been promoted as the most important non-OPEC energy source, with gas accounting for a growing percentage of energy consumption.

Conclusion…Past reports have said OPEC doesn’t like shale oil as it has been a strong competitor. So, this report appears to be an honest study of the future of the worlds energy sources.

Fossil Fuel Will Supply 80% Of Global Energy Till 2040

The global energy mix will not look much different for oil, gas, and coal through the year 2040.

Introduction...Both the middle class and world GDP is expected to double in the next 14 years, accelerating demand for air conditioned homes, cars, and appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and smart phones. Non-OECD nations, particularly China and India, will experience the most economic growth, driven by urbanization.

Oil is expected to remain the world’s primary energy source, driven by demand for transportation fuel and feedstock for the chemical industry. Plastics and other advanced materials provide advantages to manufacturers and consumers including energy efficiency gains.

Natural gas is projected to grow the most of any energy type, accounting for a quarter of all demand by 2040. Coal will remain important but will lose a significant amount of its share as the world transitions to cleaner energy.

The World ElectrifiesIncreasing electrification will drive the growth in global energy demand over the next 25 years, 55 percent of energy demand growth coming from power generation to support increasingly digital and plugged-in lifestyles and electricity will grow the most of any sector.

Conclusion: While renewable energy will grow in the next 15 years, it’s growth is not expected to keep pace with the overall demand for energy.  Oil, gas, and coal are expected to meet 80% of the world’s energy demand through the year 2040.

Sources: U.S. Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Agency, eia.gov/outlooks; International Energy Outlook 2016, U.S. Energy Information Agency, eia.gov/outlooks; Exxon’s 2040 Outlook, oilprice.com, December 30, 2016