Trump Presidency Bullish On Oil & Gas Production

PumpingRigWTexas Pumping Rig W Texas

Introduction…While there are some specifics about President-elect Donald Trump‘s energy policy to be worked out, overall his presidency is “very bullish long term for oil and gas,” Warwick Energy CEO Kate Richard told CNBC on Thursday.

Trump has said he wants to roll back regulations and produce more energy, which he believes will create more wealth for America.

Richard thinks Trump’s economic plan could probably spur economic growth and demand for oil.

“I think the market loves Republican administrations and infrastructure is very bullish for crude and natural gas demand,” she said in an interview with “Power Lunch.”

Trump has promised a massive infrastructure spending program, saying in his victory speech early Wednesday morning he’s going to fix highways bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals — and put millions of people to work to get it done.

While Richard believes Trump’s energy policy is “interesting,” she noted the whole story can’t be put together yet.

For one, she said talk about repealing Environmental Protection Agency regulations are a little hard to understand.

“We haven’t seen a decline in drilling in this country because of EPA regulations. We’ve seen a decline in drilling in this country because of two years of low prices,” she said.

Conclusion…In Texas, the Texas Railroad Commission is primarily responsible for regulating the oil and gas industry.  One could conclude it has done an amazing job of protecting the public health and promoting the industry.  The primary benefit of a Trump Presidency to the industry may be not be a change in regulations.  Rather the increase in economic activity and infrastructure improvement from his intitatives may drive demand for oil related products.  Howevert, it is reassuring to have a President-Elect who understands that a healthy oil and gas industry is important to the overall economic health of the country,

Source: “Trump presidency bullish long term for oil and gas, energy CEO Says, CNBC, Michaelle Fox, 10 Nov 2016

20 Billion Barrels Of Oil North Of Midland Says USGS

wolfcamp-03-jpg-scale-largeThe Wolfcamp Is Largest US Shale Play

Introduction...The Wolfcamp Shale Formation is the largest continuous oil that the USGS has ever assessed in the United States.  Many are calling this discovery just north of Midland and west of Abiliene ‘world class.’

“The Wolfcamp could possibly become the largest oil and gas discovery in the world,” said Scott Sheffield, chief executive officer, Pioneer Natural Resources Co.

The operator is the largest acreage holder in the Spraberry/Wolfcamp field with about 900,000 gross acres (730,000 net acres), the majority of which could be prospective for the horizontal Wolfcamp shale.

Based on Pioneer’s extensive geologic database, petrophysical analysis, and successful drilling results to date, there is significant horizontal Wolfcamp shale resource potential in this acreage.

A vast resource...”The Wolfcamp is interesting because it’s been out there,” said J. Ross Craft, chief executive officer, Approach Resources Inc. Since the onset of Permian development in the early 1920s, operators have drilled through this formation. “Early in my career, we knew the Wolfcamp as a nonproductive shale that would put oil in the pits every once in a while,” Craft said. “That was about it.”

Today, Approach Resources holds 170,000 gross acres (mostly contiguous) in the Permian basin with a reported production of 8.4 MMboe/d as of the first quarter of 2013. In 2012, then company held 95.5 MMboe of proved reserves, with 69% represented by oil and natural gas liquids. “When we first started the company in 2006, we had a $5 million commitment, 0 acres, and 0 reserves,” Craft said.

Both Pioneer and Approach Resources tout Wolfcamp potential as a boon for the industry. According to Sheffield, Pioneer’s Eagle Ford success has provided a smooth transfer into the Wolfcamp. “When comparing phases of development, we see the Wolfcamp trending higher than the Eagle Ford based on activity and production,” he said.

According to Sheffield, the company will test 13 zones within the next 3 years. Sheffield noted that recoverable reserves were based solely on the Wolfcamp A, B, and D shelves and the Jo Mill formation. The potential is enormous, and “more reserves are yet to be discovered,” Sheffield said.

Pioneer combines its Spraberry/Wolfcamp acreage. It operates on the northern end of the play, which is said to contain an estimated 3,500-4,000 ft of shales, which translates to nearly 3 to 4 million acres when considered in 3D space as opposed to surface area. “Compare that to the Eagle Ford shale formation, which is about 300 ft thick and the Spraberry/Wolfcamp shale, with its 50 billion boe, begins to dwarf the Eagle Ford and the Bakken with 27 billion boe and 13 billion boe, respectively,” Sheffield said.

Conclusion…The United States is not running out of oil and gas anytime soon as new application of technology is discovering vast resources.

Take away...Some in the oil and gas industry are saying that the produciton costs of thi new shale play make it uneconomical and this is a just a stock price publicity push for Pioneer and Apache.  Time will tell.

References:  USGS Estimates 20 Billion Barrels of Oil in Texas’ Wolfcamp Shale Formation, USGS.gov., November 15, 2016; Permian’s Wolfcamp formation called biggest shale oil field in U.S., Joe Carroll, Bloomberg News, November 15, 2016

Injection Versus Disposal Wells

Saltwater Disposal Well

Straightforward Operation- Saltwater Disposal Wells

Introduction…Due to our current opportunity in acquiring Saltwater disposal Wells, further discussion of the topic is appropriate.  So, what is the difference between injection wells and disposal wells?

Disposal wells may be used to inject mineralized water produced with oil and gas into underground zones for the purpose of safely and efficiently disposing of the fluid. Typically, the underground interval is one that is not productive of oil and gas. In some cases, however, the disposal interval is a productive zone from which oil or natural gas has been produced or is currently produced. In either case, the disposal interval must be sealed above and below by unbroken, impermeable rock layers.

Injection wells inject fluids into a reservoir for the purpose of enhanced oil recovery from the reservoir. The vast majority of wells in Texas are injection wells. Operators use injection wells to increase or maintain pressure in an oil field that has been depleted by oil production and also to displace or sweep more oil toward producing wells. This type of secondary recovery is sometimes referred to as waterflooding.

Why Texas is so great…Texas is the nation’s number one oil and gas producer with more than 294,543 active oil and gas wells statewide according to oil and gas well proration schedules (as of September 2016). Injection and disposal wells are also located throughout the state to improve oil and gas recovery and to safely dispose of the produced water and hydraulic fracturing flowback fluid from oil and gas wells.

Texas has more than 54,700 permitted oil and gas injection and disposal wells with approximately 35,915 currently active as of September 2016. Of these 35,915 active injection and disposal wells, about 7,482 are wells that are used for disposal, the remainder (about 28,433) are injection wells.

Operators requirements...Operators are required to follow the Texas Railroad Commission (Commission) disposal regulations administered by the agency’s Technical Permitting Section – Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program. Underground Injection Control is a program that is federally delegated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to Texas, and it follows national guidelines under the federal Safe Drinking Water Act for surface and groundwater protection. EPA awarded the Commission primary enforcement responsibility over oil and gas injection and disposal wells on April 23, 1982.

In conclusion…Disposal wells ( our current focus)  are not terribly complicated as compared to oil and gas exploration and development.  Nevertheless, certrain requirements of the Texas Railroad Commission are required.  The Commission is oneof the first agencies our team contacts during due dilegence on any future saltwater well purchase is the Commission.

Source: “Injection and Disposal Wells,” Texas Railroad Commission, rrc.state.tx.us

Three Keys To Successful CSWD Facility

sw

CSWD Facility

Introduction...Last week we discussed here The Surprising Discovery Of One Oil Executive.    This week we want to continue that discussion by getting into the Three Keys To Successful Commercial Salt Water Disposal (CSWD) Facility.  The ATM of the oil patch as described by insiders.

  • Location – The proximity of the CSWD to producing fields is critical, as the cost of transporting produced water to a disposal facility is one of the larger recurring expenses that an operator incurs. Our next facility is located approximately three miles from one of the larger producing fields in area. This producer disposes of approximately 325,000  barrels of water per month in the county. A larger portion of this producer’s water is produced in close proximity to our next facility, as way of illustration.  This producer wiill commit a large portion of their produced water to us.
  • Water Commitment – The commitment of water directly from the operator / producer is important to the our next facility. This allows the management to contract the water either directly with our preferred trucking company. Our preferred trucking company will base a number of their trucks at the facility and haul all water they have access to within a 20-mile radius.
  • Commitment to the Customer – The management of our next facility also operates producing properties.  The management understands  the other issues that concern an operator as it relates to choosing their disposal partner.  These Issues such include safety, ease and speed of off-loading.  Accurate and readily available reporting is important to the trucking company.  The facility will aslo provide driver amenities such as clean restrooms, cold water, and snacks.

Conclusion: The steady cash flow that is not dependent on oil pricing or new discovery makes prime CSWD properties a valuable asset.  That is one reason these ATM’s of the oil patch rarely come up for sale.  However, we have found a seller that has good facilities that can be acquired.  Drop me an email if you desire additonal information on this discovery.

This has been Bill Moist, MS, CPA reporting today Three Keys To Susccessful CSWD facility.

The Surprising Discovery Of One Oil Executive

the-surprising-dicovery-of-one-oil-executive

Reporting Bill Moist, MS, CPA

This Surprising Story is about a man I’ve known for many years.  We have worked on several projects together.  So this is a true story.

As with all those in oil & gas development they have:

  • Big discoveries
  • Small discoveries
  • Some that are not productive

So, he started asking how do we have these benefits of O&G in a more stable reliable environment.  What he wanted included the following:

  • Return of capital in months
  • High cash flow
  • Tax benefits of O&G
  • Steady long-term cash flow
  • Residual value in the property
  • Loyal locked in customers
  • Low maintenance costs
  • Not dependent on new oil and gas exploration
  • If regulators get stupid and limit fracking, it is still ok
  • The best of oil & gas development without the downside

What he found is generally not available to purchase because it is a cash cow for those how already own it.  However, some current economic events are creating the availability (for a time) to purchase existing properties at deep discounts.

Click here to watch video The Surprising Discovery…

Also, regulation makes it difficult and slow to develop new properties which restricts supply.

So, who is this mysterious oil and gas executive who discovered a better more stable way to participate?

What did he discover?

Email or text me your contact information and I’d be happy to share more on a private basis.

This has been Bill Moist, MS, CPA reporting today The Surprising Discovery Of One Oil Executive.

Recovery For Texas Energy

740_energy_oil_and_gas_image_7914 West Texas Oil Boom

In the midst of the shale boom in 2013, Texas added more than 19,000 new jobs in the oil and gas production sector, leading the U.S. job increase in the industry by a wide margin. But back then, global oil prices were stable all year around at US$100 and slightly more.

Crude prices have crashed since 2014—now barely clinging on to above US$50—effectively stagnating drilling activity and oil jobs growth.

Texas, for its part, has shed over 91,000 jobs in oil and gas industry since the end of 2014, with the Houston area economy on the cusp of a recession, according to an article in The Wall Street Journal.

The Dallas Fed has said that signs of recovery have emerged in the U.S. oil market, most notably in the Permian. The Dallas Fed also noted that Texas’s oil and gas employment increased in August—a first since 2014—suggesting that the worst of the energy crisis may be over.

“Increased activity in the Permian Basin and elsewhere has affected employment in the Texas mining sector, which rose slightly in August—its first increase since late 2014,” the Fed statement said.

The Dallas Fed issued probably the most bullish comment on the Texas oil economy so far this year, when Fed economist Pia Orrenius said that encouraging employment growth in Texas suggests that “the worst of the energy crisis may be over”.

In summary...So the latest numbers show that Texas has been overcoming this energy downturn – as it has done with many other lows – to continue to be the mainstay for America’s superpower status.

Reference:  Tsvetama Paraskova, October 14, 2016, Texas Is Making An Energy Recover, OilPrice, OilPrice.com

Gasoline Price Hike Expected After Pipeline Shutdown

gasolinepipeline Panic Grips Eastern U.S.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. Southeast spiked in September after a major gasoline pipeline suffered a leak and was forced to temporarily shut down. The Southeast may see gasoline prices rise again because the problems with the pipeline are not over.

The Colonial Pipeline is a 2.5 million barrel per day system that carries refined products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil. It consists of a massive 5,500 miles of pipeline, traveling from the Gulf Coast up to the mid-Atlantic. Fuels refined along the Gulf Coast can reach as far as New York Harbor.

On September 9, the Colonial Pipeline system was hit with a “system integrity issue” in Alabama, the company said, and was forced to shut down Line 1. That was a euphemism for a gasoline leak in the pipeline – about 8,000 barrels leaked in Alabama – which interrupted the flow of 1.4 million barrels per day of gasoline.

That was a problem for the U.S. Southeast because “there are no refineries between Alabama and Pennsylvania that produce substantial quantities of transportation fuels,” the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in September, adding that “the U.S. Southeast is supplied primarily by pipeline flows from refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast and supplemented by marine shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast and imports.”

The outage of the Colonial Pipeline led to a higher gasoline prices at the pump because there are few alternatives. Some cities with ports such as Savannah, Georgia, and Charleston, South Carolina, can receive shipments from the global market, but otherwise the region is isolated. When Colonial shutdown, some retail outlets ran out of fuel. A Virginia petroleum association member told Argus Media that it was “the worst outage he had seen in 17 years.” The outage led to an 8-cent per gallon increase in PADD 1C, which covers the southeast.

In Conclusion...This gasoline spike shows our energy delivery system is fragile and supplies can be interupted.

Reference: Nick Cunningham (2016, October 5, Pipeline Outage Could Lead To Another Gasoline Spike, OilPrice.com

New Shale Boom On Horizon?

w-texas-oil-boom Oil Shale Boom?

OPEC surprised the markets when for the first time in eight years’ oil production limits will be put in place at its November meeting. The September 29th announcement from OPEC sent markets up by almost $3 per barrel.   The rally continued with the WTI week closing at $48.24.

Hundreds of oil and gas bankruptcies are an ugly background for recent predictions for continued records inventory levels.

The projected changes would be caused by an unprecedented agreement between arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.

In its announcement, OPEC stated:

“In the last two years, the global oil market has witnessed many challenges, originating mainly from the supply side. As a result, prices have more than halved, while volatility has increased. Oil-exporting countries’ and oil companies’ revenues have dramatically declined, putting strains on their fiscal position and hindering their economic growth. The oil industry faced deep cuts in investment and massive layoffs, leading to a potential risk that oil supply may not meet demand in the future, with a detrimental effect on security of supply.”

“The Conference opted for an OPEC-14 production target ranging between 32.5 and 33.0 mb/d, in order to accelerate the ongoing drawdown of the stock overhang and bring the rebalancing forward.”

“What we are looking at here at the very least is a freeze,” Paul Sankey host of the conference call said. “We were looking for more OPEC production growth but now we no longer think so.”

Why did OPEC do it?

“With weaker demand predicted through 2017 they could see a rough market coming,” the analyst theorized. “Being a cartel the economics were overpowering: a 10 percent cut could give as much as a 30 percent rise in oil prices.

In conclusion...If a 30% oil price rise is realized, then oil shale could boom again.

Reference:  September 30, 2016, Will The OPEC Deal Lead To A New Shale Boom? Oil & Gas 360, www.oilandgas360.com

Amazing West Texas Oil And Gas Discovery

alpine-highAlpine High Oil & Gas Discovery

Introduction…Houston’s Apache Corporation has done the unexpected.  It has made an amazing oil discovery in an area that no one expected.  While much of the West Texas Permian Basin region commands $20,000 per acre,  Apache’s Alpine High was purchased for just $1,300 an acre. This acreage is undeveloped and has no infrastructure.  This contrasts to much of the Permian Basin that is very popular with drillers because it is so well developed.

Most amazing disovery  in decades…Thanks to this major find though, Apache has a lock on what could be one of the most exciting finds in decades.  How exciting you ask?  Apache said it’s accumulated more than 307,000 acres and drilled 19 wells in Alpine High, a small part of the sweeping and energy-rich Permian Basin of Texas.

Further, Apache Corp. believes there could be 3 billion barrels of oil and 75 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in what it calls Alpine High.  The reserves could be worth from $8 billion up to $80 billion by some estimates.

The company has begun drilling in the area for two years and says the early wells, which produce more natural gas than oil, are capable of providing at least a 30% profit margin at today’s prices, including all costs associated with drilling. Some are so prolific that they can break even at a price of 10 cents per million British thermal units, according to the company. Natural gas futures closed last Tuesday at $2.72.

Why does this discovery change the landscape? Apache’s recent oil find highlights what could be a new phase in fracking. To date, fracking in the U.S. had really been all about taking explored basins and drilling new wells to get at previously untapped resources. That strategy worked well when oil prices were more than $80 a barrel. At today’s prices though, drilling the old style rigs in mostly depleted fields to get at residual layers of black gold is a money losing strategy. Apache’s find shows that money can be made by taking risks and looking for major new finds in areas that had been passed over previously.

In conclusion…Apache Corporation has struck a world-class oil and gas discovery in a region that no one expected.  This clay-ridden region of the Permian Basin was believed to have little value.  The company has increased it’s 2016 capital spending by $200 million to a full-year capital of approximately $2 billion.

Sources: Michael McDonald, September 15, 2016, Why Apache’s Latest Oil Find Is Such A Game Changer, OilPrice, OilPrice.com; David Koenig, September 7, 2016, Apache may have struck big in West Texas, PowerSource, http://powersource.post-gazette.com

Gigantic U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Plunge

cushingoilinventory

Cushing, OK Inventory 

Oil inventories plunge…more than 14.5 million barrels for week ended September 2nd.  This was the greatest weekly plunge in 17 years attributed to Tropical Storm Hermine.  The U.S. Energy Information Administration said expectations were for an increase of 225,000 barrels.

The price of oil jumped $1 to $47.25 a barrel from the news.  “I think you need to see more than one week of this to get worries about oversupply out of the market,” said Gene McGillian, senior analyst at Tradition Energy of Stamford, Connecticut.

Tropical Storm Hermine interrupted shipping routes and production last week, even though the storm eventually turned to the northeast and did not harm key facilities in the Gulf.

In conclusion…this report is a minor tremor in oil supply and pricing contrasted to the impact of oil inventory shortfall due to  the $1 trillion slash in new oil field investments from 2015 to 2026.  This was reported last week in the Oil And Gas Insider article Oil Price Spike Inescapable. Click here to read last weeks report.  

Reference: UPDATE 1: Biggest weekly U.S. Crude Inventory Drop, By David Gaffen, Reuters, September 8, 2016; Oil Price Spike Inescapable, By Bill Moist, Oil And Gas Insider, September 5, 2016